Opinion: The Commercial Real Estate Investment Market Is Moving—Are You?
- RAI Commercial Group
- Apr 9
- 2 min read
Updated: Apr 15
In response to “Waiting for a Better Deal? The Market May Have Other Plans”
By Coldwell Banker Commercial, March 26, 2025
This article published by Coldwell Banker Commercial offers an insightful reality check for investors who have been holding out for further price corrections in commercial real estate. And frankly—it’s a conversation we at RAI Commercial Group are having every week.
Through 2024, the dominant investor narrative had been: “We’ll wait. Prices will fall further. Then we’ll buy.” But as new data rolls in, that thesis is beginning to crack—and smart capital is starting to shift.
Let’s Talk About the Numbers
According to Green Street, commercial property pricing has already ticked up 4.5% year-over-year. Meanwhile, MSCI Real Capital Analytics shows 0.3% annual growth in January 2025—not a meteoric rise, but the fourth straight month of gains.
That’s not just noise. That’s momentum.
At the same time, cap rate expansion is showing signs of slowing—meaning the deep-value window many investors were waiting on may already be behind us.
And it’s not just pricing trends. The Federal Reserve’s cautious posture on rate cuts suggests we may not get the dramatic interest rate relief many were banking on to make deals pencil better. In other words: the market might not “come down” much further.
What We’re Seeing on the Ground
RAI Commercial Group is seeing a shift play out especially in resilient asset classes like:
Small-bay industrial & office/warehouse flex
Neighborhood retail in growth corridors
Land and user-driven product in emerging suburban markets
And in places like Montgomery County, Texas, that recovery feels less theoretical and more tactical. Capital is starting to reposition. End-users are moving. Developers are assembling. The commercial real estate investment market is booming.
Meanwhile, asset classes like CBD office continue to show real distress—with pricing down 60% since 2019 and no real path to stabilization yet. That divergence creates opportunity—but also urgency. The good stuff is stabilizing. The distressed stuff is shrinking. There’s not much time to stand still.
Our Takeaway for Investors
If you’re still waiting for the “bottom,” you might be looking in the rearview mirror.
If you’re active now, you still have the advantage of negotiating with uncertain sellers.
If you wait too long, you may be chasing a market that has already found its footing.
And while every deal still needs to underwrite, the broader tone of 2025 is this:
Smart money isn’t waiting—it’s adjusting.
RAI Commercial Group specializes in helping investors navigate exactly these kinds of inflection points—particularly across flex, specialty-use, and high-growth corridor assets. We're not chasing headlines. We're sourcing real opportunities.
Want to know where we see deal flow heating up next? Book a strategy call here.
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Written by RAI Commercial Group
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